What will happen this winter in Upstate New York? Forecast models have been all over the place. The Climate Prediction Center calls for a warm and wet La Nina winter. The Farmer’s Almanac says we’ll be buried under a mountain of snow. NOAA says everything’s going to be average across the board. All we know was that ten days ago it was short sleeve weather and now we could be seeing inches of snow on the ground.

According to the Weather Channel, Albany’s average first day of snow is November 16. The National Weather Service office out of Albany has been following a storm pattern brewing with the recent and large drop in temperature that would put this year right on time.

It's Coming

Shoeprints in snow
Credit: robertiez Source: ThinkStock

Temperatures across the Capital Region will hover near freezing and could dip into the high 20s in higher elevations. Combine that with an elevated precipitation chance and the odds are very good we’ll see our first covering of ice and snow by early Wednesday. Snow accumulation chances have only risen throughout the weekend.

RELATED: Albany Was 0.2° Away From A Wild 1874 Weather Record On Nov. 7

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This could make for a more hazardous commute on Wednesday morning, even in areas to the south. There may also be freezing rain along I-90 and into the Catskills. No word on exact timing of when the snow will arrive.

Here’s how much snow Upstate New York is looking at via the Official NWS Forecast:

The New York State Capital in Albany
Getty Images

1-2” in Albany

Schenectady Sky

2-3” in Schenectady

Monument Square in Troy, NY

1-2” in Troy

The Adirondacks and the Hudson River in fall.

Less than 1” in Hudson and west Columbia County


2-3” in Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls

The Adirondack Mountains from a high peak

3-4” in Piseco, Hunter and on higher elevations

Don't count on the snow sticking around long, though. Warmer daytime temperatures will likely lead to rain that will wash most accumulation away. Would an average first snow date back up the prediction of an average winter? We'll have to wait and see.

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